Ghosts of Process Present

You may remember that about a month ago I wrote a piece titled The Ghosts of Process Past that highlighted the biggest mistakes throughout the history of the Sixers’ Process. Now, you may also remember that I mentioned it was the first article of a three part mini-series, and while it has taken much longer than I wished for me to get around to it, I present to you part two: The Ghosts of Process Present.

Now much like Ghosts of Process Past, I am going to avoid talking in retrospect as much as possible. What I mean by this is I am not going to be talking about why the Sixers can’t win a championship this year. With the way the league is currently constructed, it is incredibly difficult for really the 28 other teams outside of the Warriors and the new look Raptors to contend for a title this year when they are healthy. Will the journey to the Championship series be exciting? Probably, just as we saw last year’s Western and Eastern Conference Championship series each go to 7 games. But really, the Warriors and Cavaliers were both chalked up to compete in their fourth straight title series since before the season even started.

Rather, my desire is to discuss the biggest issues with how the Sixers are currently built, why these problems are taking away from them truly reaching their potential, and how it may affect them in the years to come. So, without further ado, here are my top 5 Ghosts of Process Present:

5. The Markelle Fultz Mystery

It should come to no basketball fan’s surprise that Markelle Fultz found his way onto this list. What may be a bit surprising is why I have it so low, so hear me out. Markelle Fultz’ rookie year was incredibly disappointing, and it makes it even more so because Bryan Colangelo traded up to select him with the first overall pick. With uncertainty surrounding him and the team concerning whether it was an injury or a mental issue, there have been questions circling whether or not Fultz will ever be the same since the first time he suited up for a preseason game. But the fact is the Sixers were a 52 win team without him. Sure, the Washington Markelle Fultz could have easily been the piece that turned a good team into a great team, but with the new addition of Jimmy Butler, Fultz does not need to be the guy to fill that role anymore. With all of this in mind, its fair to consider the Fultz issue as more of a “non-positive” rather than a negative.

However, there was a lot of anticipation that Fultz could have very well been ready to return in full form this year after working all summer with shot doctor Drew Hanlen. But as we all saw, Fultz clearly was not at 100% and his improved shot and mentality quickly deteriorated as the season went on. With Fultz currently out rehabbing what was officially declared as thoracic outlet syndrome, there is hope again that Fultz can come back ready to play like he did as a collegiate athlete, but it was also recently reported that Fultz may not be able to return this year at all.

Even if he never becomes the player he was supposed to be, he could very well play an important role off the bench as the team’s future sixth man if he is able to find any sort of footing in the NBA. With all of this to consider, it puts the Sixers in a very difficult situation: should they trade him or keep him? The benifits of trading him is freeing up $10 million in cap space they can use to strengthen their depth next offseason. But if they trade him for a pile of second rounders and an aging vet (which, lets be honest, is all they can get for him right now) and Fultz turns around his career, it could haunt the Sixers for upwards of a decade. It remains to be seen how the situation will turn out, but it will be incredibly interesting to see what happens.

4. Spacing

It has been about a month and a half since the Sixers traded Dario Saric, Robert Covington, and some change in return for All-Star Jimmy Butler. Since then, the Sixers are 13-4 in games Butler has played since making his debut in a Sixer’s uniform (0-2 when he sits). So there is no doubt that the trade has made the Sixers a much better basketball team. However, as much as Butler helps the Sixers, there has been one noticeable drawback from the trade: three point shooting.

Now, when you look at the team stats from three point range, there is not a glaring difference from before and after the trade. The Sixers struggled collectively from three early this season but last year they shot 29.8 3PA on 36.9% per game (29.8 3PA on 37.9% per game after the start of the New Year when the Sixers really started rolling). Since the trade, the team has been shooting 30.4 threes per game at 36.9%. While the team’s three point production has not exactly changed, it is hard to ignore trading away two of the team’s three best three point shooters for a guy who makes a living in the mid-range like Butler. Butler is currently shooting a career high 38.8% from three, but it remains to be seen if he can keep this pace up as he has only played 27 games this year. With Embiid not exactly a prolific three point shooter and Ben Simmons yet to attempt a legitamate three in his career, the Sixers lack of premier perimeter shooting could very well be exposed futher down the road like in last year’s playoff series against the Celtics.

3. The Phantom of the Process

While yes, this heading is an ode to Embiid’s self imposed nickname from last year’s playoff run, I do not mean this in a good way. Just like a phantom, or a ghost, can disappear into thin air, so can Joel Embiid and Ben Simmons against the better teams in the league. What do I mean by this? Well, let’s take a look at the Sixer’s performance against the Celtics and the Raptors, the Sixers’ two biggest obstacles in the Eastern Conference, over the last two seasons. In the regular season alone, the Sixers are a combined 3-9 against these two teams (1-4 against Boston and 2-5 against Toronto). The Sixers might have won big the other night against Toronto, but the Raptors were without three of their best players in Kawhi Leonard, Serge Ibaka, and Jonas Valencuinas. And then of course we all remember losing to the Celtics in 5 games in last years playoffs: a series in which the Celtics were without their two best players and a game where Ben Simmons could only manage one singular point.

On top of all that, with the Sixers recent win against a depleted Raptors team, they improved to a mere 4-7 against teams with a winning record this year and face 16 more teams with a +.500 winning percentage through February 12th. It will undoubtedly be the biggest challenge of the season for the team, and will show us truly what this team is all about.

Nevertheless, the Sixers are still a young team learning to grow with eachother, and I have faith they will get this issue sorted out, especially with the talent they have at the top of their roster.

2. Brett Brown Being Just… Ok

While the “Fire Brett Brown” crowd has not been as loud this year, they still exist, and they have a tad bit of a valid argument. Before I get into it, I just want to preface this by saying Brett Brown is not a bad coach, by any means. But that being said, he is not a great coach either. Now, I love Brett Brown. He has been here since the beginning of the Process and deserves every chance in the world to be able to win a title with this team. He is an excellent X’s and O’s guy, as he’s been able to develop very effective offensive and defensive systems. The Sixers were even one of the best defensive teams in the league in the middle of the Process Era led by a rookie Nerlens Noel. On top of that, the organization loves him and his players believe in him.

However, in the heat of the game, Brown is prone to some questionable rotations and even more questionable time management. Time in and time out, he fails to stop the clock, give his guys a rest, and draw up a play to get the team rolling when they are on the wrong end of long scoring runs. I would not place him in my top 10 coaches in the league and I’m not convinced he is in the top half either. With a young, inexperienced team, it is incredibly important for the team to have a coach that can guide them through close games and the playoff grind, and judging by the collapse against the Celtics in last years playoffs and their inexplicable habit of losing 20 point leads in the 4th quarter, I am not convinced Brown is that guy.

My stance? The Sixers should not fire Brett Brown, yet. While the Sixers could do a whole lot worse at the Head Coach position, I don’t think they could do a whole lot better at the moment, as there are not exactly any desireable coaches available on the market. Brett Brown is still figuring things out just like his players, so only time will tell if good ole BB can coach his guys to a long playoff run.

1. The Bench

Any Sixers fan who’s watched their fair share of games this year knows that the Sixers’ depth, or lack there of, has been a major issue. This also ties in with Markelle Fultz’ disappearing jumpshot, as his ability to create shots off the dribble is exactly what the Sixers need off the pine. Currently, the Sixers rotation includes TJ McConnell, Furkan Korkmaz, Mike Muscala, Landry Shamet, and more recently Jonah Bolden. Shake Melton, Demetrius Jackson, and Amir Johnson round out the reserves. While most of these players are solid rotational guys and could very well earn minutes on a majority of teams around the league, there are two glaring holes in the rotation: shot creating and rim protection.

As far as the guards go, Shamet and McConnell are the first two guys off the bench. Shake Melton and Demetrius Jackson have been getting more looks as of late, but their youth and inexperience show when they find themselves on the hardwood. Shamet has been one of the most surprising rookies in the league, going head to head with Luka Doncic for the rookie leader in three pointers made. McConnell has been a fan favorite for years with his gritty defense and incredible moments over the years, like his game winner against the Knicks two seasons ago.

But both of them come with significant draw backs. McConnell is not exactly an offensive force. He is a game manager that is great in his role, but he cannot be called upon to come off the bench and give the team a bucket. Additionally, after posting a career high in three point efficiency last season, he has taken a significant step back in that department. Shamet on the other hand is used as essentially JJ Redick lite, which is perfect on the offensive side of the ball. However, much like JJ, Shamet struggles on the defensive side, especially against more athletic players.

Furkan Korkmaz is currently the only wing coming off the bench for the Sixers, and he poses the same advantages and disadvantages as Shamet. However, he has proven that he could earn an important role off the bench come playoff time, as he has been playing more than Shamet lately.

Perhaps the biggest issue is the backups to All-Star Center Joel Embiid. Jonah Bolden, Mike Muscala, and Amir Johnson are not bad players, but none of them can effectively guard the rack. Bolden has shown some defensive upside, but much like Amir, he just does not have the athleticism to keep the other team outside of the paint. While Muscala plays an excellent stretch role at the five and four, he is a giant hole on the defensive end.

The season is far from over, and the Sixers’ roster is far from complete. I expect them to address this issue with a trade and free agency after the Buy Out Deadline, but as of now the Sixers’ bench greatly hinders the team from reaching their fullest.

Well, there you have it: The Ghosts of Process Present. I wish everyone a Merry Christmas and a Happy New Year. Keep an eye out for the final edition of this three part docu-series: The Ghosts of Process Future.

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Jimmy Butler: The Good, The Bad, and The Ugly

With Jimmy Butler set to lace up and take the hardwood for the first time as a Philadelphia 76er, the Sixers seem to have finally landed the third star they so desperately have been chasing. Teaming up with young phenom Ben Simmons and the Cameroonian Nightmare, Joel Embiid, Butler and the Sixers’ championship chances immediately skyrocketed. But even so, what kind of chance do they have?

There’s no doubt that Jimmy Butler is a phenomenal player. There’s no doubt that he makes the Sixers a better basketball team. But is his baggage worth it? And more importantly, is the timing right?

The Good

The good news is, the Sixers just got a lot better. Sure, it stings seeing two of our most beloved athletes get shipped off to the blistering tundra of Minnesota. Dario Saric and Robert Covington were everything the Process was supposed to be about: a shot in the dark to develop raw, young talent. They embodied the Process and embodied the city. But. And that’s a big but. Jimmy Butler is an All-Star and All-Defensive bully. His intensity on the court and ability to get buckets on his own are two things Covington and Saric never really brought to the table.

The fit is going to be weird. The spacing is going to be weird. Without Covington and Saric, the Sixers effectively have two players who can hit threes at a high clip: JJ Redick and rookie Landry Shamet. It is going to take some time to figure out how Simmons, Embiid, and Butler will play together, but these three guys are good enough, and smart enough, to figure it out eventually.

The Sixers are in 3rd place in the Eastern Conference, and now they have three of the top seven players in the East. Realistically, they look like a top 5 team in the NBA and have a shot to compete for the first seed in the Eastern Conference.

The Bad

Jimmy Butler comes with some baggage… but we already knew this didn’t we? Of course by now everyone knows he wanted out of Minnesota because of tensions in the locker room, but this isn’t the first time we have heard something like this. Even in his days in Chicago, Butler complained about head coach Fred Hoidberg and had grievances with his teammates in the Windy City.

There’s a very real chance Jimmy Butler comes to Philadelphia and brings his problems with him. Whether it’s complaining to Ben about passing up an open look or Markelle Fultz jitters, Butler has the potential to pit the whole band against each other, just like he did in Minnesota.

But.

It’s possible, and more likely, that Butler’s grievances come from being surrounded by “less-than-championship” talent for his entire career. By the time he took over as the Bulls top player, the organization could never give him more than aging Pau Gasol and Dwayne Wade. Things were supposed to be different with the Wolves. Karl Anthony-Towns looked like a generational talent, and with Butler’s help, Andrew Wiggins could develop into one of the most terrifying wing scorers and defenders. But the Wolves’ youth proved to be too immature for Jimmy. KAT and Wiggins simply have the “dog” in them that it takes to be great. They were satisfied with just being good and didn’t put the time and effort in to succeed. In other words, they were more focused on their own achievements rather than their team’s achievements.

While there is still the possibility things go wrong in Philadelphia, there is hope. Butler is going to find a warm welcome to one of the hardest working players in the league in Joel Embiid, one of the most unselfish players in the league in Ben Simmons, and of course one of the easiest coaches to talk to in the NBA in Brett Brown. There is a sense of urgency to win in Philadelphia right now, and I think Butler is going to enjoy the ride.

The Ugly

Well, we talked about his locker room baggage, along with the departures of Dario and Covington, so what could possibly be the ugly?

Timing.

Quite frankly, this trade has panic written all over it. Wanting to make a name for himself, newly named GM, Elton Brand, pulled a quick trigger to make his first major move. And unfortunately, he was looking way to short-sightedly.

Today’s NBA is dominated by one team, and one team only. Everyone knows it, and everyone knows that if that team stays healthy, they will win the Championship.

We all know who I’m talking about.

The Warriors current dominance makes any attempt to win a championship this year almost futile. No team can compete with 3 top 10 caliber players (Demarcus Cousins when healthy) and probably the two greatest role players of all time in Klay and Dray. For as long as Kevin Durant stays in Golden State, the Warriors are set up to dominate for the next few years until age catches up with them.

While the media is having a frenzy over Draymond and Durant’s feud, it’s reckless to say Durant is going to leave Golden State this year. Sure, there have been talks of it before the season ever started, but it was all rumors. The point is people fight, teammates disagree, and egos collide. One disagreement over one regular season game barely seems like enough to break up a team that just won back-to-back championships and is well on their way to win their third in a row.

So why does any of this matter? Well Jimmy Butler is 29 years old. Compared to Embiid (24) and Simmons (22), the Sixers third star is… well… old. Assuming the Sixers re-sign him, as both parties have been reported to be interested in reaching an agreement, Butler has maybe three or four years left of prime basketball, as we see many stars take steep drops once they hit their early 30’s. This gives the Sixers an incredibly tight window to go all in for a Championship, all while during the dynasty of the most talented team of all time.

We put all of our chips into Butler. Dario Saric and Robert Covington were two of the last three high-trade-value assets we had (2021 MIA First Round Pick being the third). If Butler can not deliver, we effectively ended The Process before we could reap its benefits. Sure, our championship chances are considerably higher for the next few seasons, but are we going to win one? Can the likes of Simmons, Embiid, and Butler compete with Kevin Durant, Steph Curry, and the Warriors? If you’re asking me, I’m skeptical. It won’t happen this year, and it probably won’t happen next year. The year after? Maybe, but I’m not convinced. And then, by the time Simmons and Embiid are hitting their peaks, Butler will be 32 or 33 and assumably be a far inferior version of his current self. Drafting Markelle Fultz was supposed to give the Sixers three young stars that could grow and dominate together for upwards of a decade. But with Markelle’s struggles and Butler’s age, our window effectively decreases from ten to four.

I’m just as excited to watch Butler in the Rocky sweatsuit jerseys as anyone else, but I am just not sure how well this move fits with our plans moving on in the future.